Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 17.433033 19.884193 22.523447 25.572478 28.993675 32.709772 37.047577
2025-01-26 13.956280 17.312712 21.203365 26.030134 31.840022 38.589423 47.004743
2025-02-02 12.332247 16.140261 20.765712 26.766447 34.310927 43.444361 55.297390
2025-02-09 10.687510 14.684192 19.748043 26.585785 35.521528 46.739409 61.816593
2025-02-16 9.353008 13.413723 18.752983 26.218753 36.307464 49.374724 67.471511
2025-02-23 8.434396 12.576045 18.207115 26.331572 37.643254 52.706076 74.124926
2025-03-02 7.729476 11.944943 17.854985 26.629031 39.180350 56.316519 81.268106
2025-03-09 7.058121 11.284891 17.385525 26.689580 40.341058 59.418399 87.814716
2025-03-16 6.388518 10.555829 16.741433 26.421636 40.972932 61.762367 93.358032
2025-03-23 5.932886 10.106867 16.464938 26.654259 42.314354 65.143952 100.503144
2025-03-30 5.667672 9.930181 16.579241 27.468684 44.545866 69.900631 109.847777
2025-04-06 5.195789 9.372569 16.049959 27.232925 45.136978 72.220491 115.640360
2025-04-13 4.525927 8.433097 14.851893 25.870144 43.915957 71.777437 117.300207
2025-04-20 4.312319 8.257659 14.889223 26.510065 45.906702 76.366104 126.921247
2025-04-27 4.127365 8.113141 14.960777 27.198264 47.994257 81.178827 137.078049
2025-05-04 3.813752 7.706617 14.550236 27.034862 48.652301 83.727799 143.726237
2025-05-11 3.496519 7.263466 14.039339 26.655652 48.910071 85.617831 149.363221
2025-05-18 3.282725 6.997040 13.822026 26.772356 50.009826 88.922552 157.437909
2025-05-25 3.112650 6.800038 13.714754 27.073624 51.436029 92.819601 166.642187
2025-06-01 2.924221 6.549158 13.487257 27.135337 52.431713 96.017763 174.783707
2025-06-08 2.709747 6.225382 13.096426 26.863232 52.802720 98.145258 181.164692
2025-06-15 2.573017 6.051252 12.980683 27.099424 54.103278 101.927588 190.534913
2025-06-22 2.511465 6.032138 13.167685 27.926223 56.533107 107.789045 203.758559